Since the dawn of time, the cold/flu have been mortal enemies of traders/bloggers/husbands trying to lay new floors for their wives.
Since my mortal enemy has finally retreated, I will be back to posting my notes/levels/trade reviews this week. However, all my enemy did was delay the inevitable fact that I must satisfy my significant other by laying down new floors throughout our home, so you can suffer through this journey with me in an effort to appease my beautiful wife.
Good luck trading today
With a distribution day in the indices, naturally we are reaching some much lower levels in the $NYMO. If we see another down day or two, this should have us in oversold territory. Once we start seeing oversold levels, I start looking for swing trades from major areas of untested demand, and those tend to be my best swing trades.
Stayed in neutral territory in the put/call ratio. Not really any ultra bearishness or bullishness at this point, and combined with declining $NYMO levels, I would say we could easily see a mini-correction from these levels. However, all of this hinges on NFP. I still think an NFP pop will be a good shorting opportunity, but turning higher from this level (basically no-man’s land) would leave bulls chasing, and bears fumbling to get out of the shorts they put on in the hole, which would = new highs on NFP.
We shall see how it plays out, but neutral $CPC and declining $NYMO has me leaning towards sell the rips until we get both lined up @ extreme levels for a dip buying opportunity.
/CL was about all that held up, which is what I expected there. /NQ and /ES saw an actual distribution day right before NFP even on good GDP #’s. Straight up liquidation doesn’t bode well for intermediate levels, especially after trading in a narrow channel like we have been recently.
We made a move from the weekly level of 93.21 up to the 95.18 level over the last few days, so the 95.18 supply was a great place to get short, looking for a cover/reverse at the 93.90/.82 – 93.68 demand level. The 93.90 level was from the 15m chart, and the .82 entry came from the 500 tick chart, both having the same stop below 93.68. This was good for 60-70 ticks after a short of over 100 ticks. When this thing hits major levels, it is by far my favorite instrument to trade.
Pop and drop here. We’ve been playing around in this range, I thought we might stay in the range until NFP tomorrow, but I was wrong. Tried to catch the falling knife 2x, made out w/ 2pts on one trade, took a 2.75pt stop on the other, so negative on the day in /ES
Here were today’s levels
Here is what happened today
The consolidation here was even more pronounced than /ES so a break of that balance was definitely going to lead to a sharp move either way. The lower end of the range had been a nice supply level, but weakness from the open and it being probably a 5th or 6th test of the level kept me from fading there. We blew through another level, but did stop at the 3318 – 3313.75 level, so we’ll see how that holds up tonight/tomorrow. I’m not expecting it to hold just due to the fact that we did not see a significant rejection of the level, so without a decent push higher, we’ll be looking for lower levels to get long.
Overall, I’m now looking for a pop to get short on NFP #’s tomorrow. Today’s selling indicates we could have put in an intermediate term top, and if that’s true, I fully expect everyone and their mother to proclaim this the $TWTR top…I just don’t think it’s a long term top.